Bitcoin traded near $72,000 on Friday after fresh U.S. inflation data came in below expectations. March CPI rose 2.8% annually, lower than Wall Street forecasts. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s new spot Bitcoin ETF entered its first full trading week after debuting on NYSE Arca.
TLDR
- Bitcoin is priced at $72,161 with a 24-hour trading volume of $39.7 billion, up ~1.45% on the day and ~7.82% over seven days.
- March CPI rose just 0.3% month-over-month, bringing the annual rate to 2.8%, against a market consensus of approximately 3.3%-3.7%, with core CPI up 0.4% monthly and 3.1% annually.
- Morgan Stanley’s MSBT drew $34 million in net inflows on its April 8 debut at a 0.14% expense ratio, the lowest among all US spot Bitcoin ETFs, undercutting BlackRock’s IBIT by 11 basis points.
- The ceasefire catalyst triggered nearly $600 million in leveraged futures liquidations earlier this week, with over $400 million from short positions, driving BTC from $67,000-$68,000 to an intraday peak of $72,699.
- Ceasefire conditions remain contested as of today, with Iran citing violations of its 10-point proposal and the Strait of Hormuz terms still unresolved.
Today’s CPI Print Changes the Rate Calculus
The BLS released March CPI at 8:30 AM EDT today, reporting a 0.3% monthly increase and a 2.8% annual rate. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% for the month. The print is a direct contradiction of the energy-driven inflation scenario that dominated the pre-release consensus.
Forecasters had estimated the annual rate would jump to approximately 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, driven by higher energy costs linked to the Iran conflict and tariff pass-through into consumer prices. The national average gasoline price had climbed above $4 per gallon for the first time in over three years heading into the report.
The lower-than-expected CPI print could become a major short-term catalyst for Bitcoin, as easing inflation improves sentiment toward risk assets. The FOMC voted 11-1 to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% at its March meeting, with seven of 19 participants projecting no rate cuts in 2026. A softer-than-expected inflation print shifts the probability distribution on that posture and reduces the cost of holding non-yielding risk assets.
Where Bitcoin Stands Today
Bitcoin is trading at $72,161, with a market capitalization of $1.44 trillion and a circulating supply of 20 million BTC. The asset has recovered approximately 5.65% over the past seven trading days, entirely on the back of the geopolitical relief trade from the US-Iran ceasefire announced on April 7.
That ceasefire, however, showed signs of fragility by Thursday. Iran cited US and Israeli violations of its 10-point proposal and demanded Lebanon be included in the agreement, conditions rejected by both Washington and Tel Aviv. Today’s Islamabad peace talks, the formal negotiation session mediated by Pakistan, are the next binary event determining whether the geopolitical tailwind holds.
Bitcoin dominance sat at 56.8% as of April 8, with the broader crypto market cap at $2.51 trillion. Despite a Fear and Greed Index reading of 13 (Extreme Fear), institutional investors directed $471.4 million into US spot Bitcoin ETFs on April 6 alone, the sixth-largest single-day inflow of 2026.
Morgan Stanley’s MSBT: What the First Week Signals
The Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust began trading on NYSE Arca on April 8 under ticker MSBT, making Morgan Stanley the first major US bank to issue a spot Bitcoin ETF. The fund charges 0.14% annually, below BlackRock’s IBIT at 0.25%, Fidelity’s FBTC at 0.25%, and Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust at 0.15%.
The fee is not the primary competitive lever. Morgan Stanley’s 16,000 financial advisors manage over $6.2 trillion in client assets. When those advisors direct allocations into MSBT, the fund does not compete on a brokerage shelf alongside eleven other options. That closed distribution architecture is what separates MSBT structurally from every prior Bitcoin ETF launch.
Despite MSBT’s strong opening, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $94 million in net outflows on April 8, with large redemptions from Fidelity’s FBTC and Ark and 21Shares’ ARKB leading the decline. The category-level outflow on MSBT’s launch day confirms that distribution advantage, not headline sentiment, will determine whether the fund builds durable flows across its first weeks of trading.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs held $88.71 billion in total net assets as of April 7, with IBIT accounting for approximately $54.5 billion. MSBT enters a market dominated by products with no proprietary advisor network behind them.
Three Variables, One Session
Today’s session runs three simultaneous inputs: the March CPI print, the Islamabad ceasefire talks outcome, and MSBT’s first full trading week in front of Morgan Stanley’s advisor network. The CPI data has already landed softer than the market priced.
The core CPI reading of 3.1% annually keeps the Federal Reserve in a data-dependent posture, with the FOMC’s pre-meeting blackout period beginning April 23 and the May 1 policy decision as the next formal rate signal. A ceasefire breakdown in Islamabad reinstates oil supply disruption risk and rebuilds the inflation case. A durable agreement removes it. With inflation cooling and institutional demand rising, Bitcoin now enters a critical phase as traders watch whether bulls can push above the $73,000 resistance zone in the coming sessions.
Also Read:
- Kraken Lists Quai Network (QUAI) on April 8 as Price Trades 91% Below ATH
- Standard Chartered Predicts $500K Bitcoin and $40K Ethereum by 2030
- Ethereum to $62,000? Tom Lee’s Prediction Faces a Major Reality Check
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.
Pijus Paul is the Founder and Lead Cryptocurrency Market Analyst at Cryptowealthnet. He specializes in Bitcoin and altcoin price predictions supported by technical analysis, market cycle evaluation, and risk-managed scenario planning. His price forecasts emphasize probability, structure, and disciplined strategy rather than speculation. LinkedIn: Pijus Paul
