Spot Bitcoin ETF assets remain at $95.5 billion, with AUM stability driven by basis trade arbitrage and sovereign capital rotation rather than directional accumulation.
TLDR
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs hold $95.5 billion in aggregate assets as of February 18, 2026, despite a 52% drawdown from the $126,000 cycle peak.
- Mubadala Investment Company increased its IBIT position by 45% in the recent reporting period, now controlling 12.7 million shares.
- Arbitrage Influence: High holdings are sustained by delta-neutral basis trades rather than directional conviction, as recent net outflows reached $104.9 million.
- Strengthening DXY (97.34) and elevated 10-year Treasury yields (4.03%) increase the opportunity cost for non-yielding digital assets.
Institutional participation in U.S. listed spot Bitcoin ETFs has shifted from aggressive price discovery to structural basis trade management and sovereign diversification. While aggregate assets under management (AUM) remain at $95.5 billion, the mechanism of action behind this stability is a surge in delta-neutral positioning by hedge funds seeking to capture the yield spread between spot and futures.
Basis Trade Arbitrage and the Institutional Floor
The stability of ETF holdings despite a 52% price correction is largely driven by the cash and carry strategy. Institutional participants like Jane Street utilize spot ETFs to hedge short positions in the futures market, capturing the basis spread. This creates a technical floor for AUM that does not translate into directional buy-side pressure.
Recent data confirms this trend, with $104.9 million in net outflows occurring as futures premiums compress. High-net-worth entities are not exiting the asset class but are instead rebalancing to maintain neutral exposure while the asset trades in the $60,000 to $68,000 corridor. This structural dominance masks the lack of retail-driven momentum typically seen in expansionary phases.
Sovereign Wealth and Long-Term Capital Rotation
In contrast to the arbitrage-driven flows, sovereign wealth funds are executing high-conviction accumulation. Mubadala Investment Company reported a 45% increase in its IBIT holdings, bringing its total to 12.7 million shares valued at approximately $630.6 million as of the latest 13F filings.
This sovereign rotation indicates that global state-backed entities view current price levels as an attractive accumulation zone. Combined with Al Warda Investments, Abu Dhabi funds now control over 21 million shares of the BlackRock vehicle. This long-term capital provides a significant volatility dampener, absorbing sell-side liquidity from distressed retail participants.
Macro Convergence: DXY Strength and Treasury Yields
Bitcoin (BTC) price action is increasingly dictated by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which rose to 97.34 following strong domestic economic data. The 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.03%, maintains a high hurdle for risk assets, as investors can capture guaranteed returns in fixed income. This environment exerts a gravitational pull on all high-beta assets, including the broader crypto market.
The correlation with the S&P 500 remains tight at 0.60, with the index hovering near 6,836. Until macroeconomic conditions signal a shift toward monetary easing, Bitcoin will likely face continued overhead resistance at the $70,000 mark. The current market regime is one of valuation adjustment rather than systemic exit, as institutional infrastructure remains robust despite the price retreat.
Liquidity Gaps and the Deleveraging Cycle
The mechanism of action for recent price drops can be traced to a liquidity gap created during the rapid ascent to $126,000. As the price broke below the $80,000 support, it triggered a series of forced liquidations in the derivatives market. This deleveraging cycle was exacerbated by a lack of immediate spot demand to fill the void, leading to the current consolidation phase.
However, the ETF structure has altered the typical “crash” dynamic. Unlike previous cycles, where high-net-worth entities might have faced difficulty exiting large positions, the regulated liquidity of the ETF market allows for more orderly transitions. This has prevented a total collapse of the order book, as market makers use the ETF creation and redemption process to maintain tight spreads even during high-velocity moves.
Forward-Looking Market Positioning
Market participants should anticipate continued sideways consolidation between $60,000 and $75,000 for the remainder of Q1 2026. A decisive daily close above $75,000 is required to re-establish the bullish trend and shift institutional focus back to directional buying.
Should Treasury yields break above 4.20%, expect further deleveraging in the derivatives market and potential testing of the $50,000 support level. High-net-worth entities appear content to accumulate within the current range, but the absence of a macro catalyst prevents immediate price appreciation.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile, and readers should conduct their own research before making financial decisions.
Pijus Paul is the Founder and Lead Cryptocurrency Market Analyst at Cryptowealthnet. He specializes in Bitcoin and altcoin price predictions supported by technical analysis, market cycle evaluation, and risk-managed scenario planning. His price forecasts emphasize probability, structure, and disciplined strategy rather than speculation.